This position came up and someone wanted to know why it was such a big double for red.
Here's 3 responses from 3 separate members of the Ottawa BG club.
Feel free to leave your opinion.
1.
"I see the effective pip count as close to even with all of blue's wastage and the gap on the 4. I don't think there is any roll for red that blue has an immediate re double? You also have to look at red's 5% gammon chances where blue has no gammon chance. When red does hit, his winning chances are over 90%. When red rolls a missing number like say 5-2, he can play 13-6 with not much worry and blue doubling after that would be a big blunder. I see this as a pretty big edge for red."
2.
"First of all the idea of an immediate redouble is insignificant since the cube is centered and would have been available to blue anyway.
The pip count is deceptive, red has a perfectly smooth bear off. It’s better to count crossovers in the outfield and the pip count in the outfield.
The crossovers are 6 to 5, with red on the roll. The outfield pip count is 26 to 29. Also, when red fails to throw a 6, he can still move
off the 13 point, say with a 54, if he wants since blue’s board is not set up to contain a man on the bar.
It’s a double because any hit is a loss of market. This type of position occurs often, the important thing is to know that it is a take for blue."
3.
"I set up the position on gnu, and it also considers it a definite double--I would guess because of the blot in blue's home board which must involve a real gammon risk in case red hits and gets hit in return.
But even when I moved that blot to the 22 point, gnu still thought it is a double, but a very borderline one."
